The output gap is the difference between what an economy is producing and what it can produce. At the first wave peak of the COVID-19 induced economic crisis, the output gap was initially estimated to be about 15% of GDP at the end of the first quarter of 2020. However, an aggressive Federal “stimulus” program reduced this to a still considerable 10% of GDP by the end of the second quarter of 2020, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Since then, the output gap has continued to shrink, to an estimated 3% of GDP by the end of 2020.

The…


Public support for DC statehood, mostly mirroring the Democratic Party’s increasing popularity, has been increasing, if modestly. A YouGov survey in September of 2020 found that 43% of the public supported DC statehood while 34% opposed, up from 35% in support in 2019. However, almost all of the increase in support came from Democrats, who increased their level of support from 47% to 69% while the increase for independents was modest, up to 30% from 27%, and support from Republicans actually declined.

A Harris poll in late June 2020 gave somewhat different results from the YouGov survey. It found that…


According to the IMF, the Chinese economy contracted 6.8% in the first quarter of this year. Most analysts expect modest recovery in the second half of the year, with an anticipated 2020 full year growth rate of 0.5% to 2%, depending on the course of the virus, among other factors. Most forecasts by China watchers for 2021 foresee a relatively strong recovery, generally between 6% and 8%.

Analysts believe that expected strong growth in 2021 will be driven primarily by infrastructure spending, through an already adopted stimulus package, and perhaps extra stimulus to be adopted next year. Similarly, in 2020…


Georgia has been properly lauded for its tough but pragmatic response to the coronavirus epidemic. The country took strong action early, closing key borders and instituting a strict lock down before rapid community spread took hold. Consequently, Georgia has thus far been far more successful than its neighbors — Russia, Armenia, Turkey, and Iran — all of which share borders with Georgia. Through June 22'nd 2020 Georgia has had only 14 coronavirus deaths and 908 confirmed cases.

Georgia has fared better than its neighbors at least partially because it is home to a world class research institute on infectious diseases…


In two major period over the past fifty years the Federal Reserve has been the great enabler, using low interest rates to temporarily juice the economy, assuaging the President and aggressive interests in Congress and at times the financial services industry. …

James Gerard Moses

James Moses is owner & research director of Primary Research Group Inc. He has an MA in international economics and political economy from Columbia University.

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