The output gap is the difference between what an economy is producing and what it can produce. At the first wave peak of the COVID-19 induced economic crisis, the output gap was initially estimated to be about 15% of GDP at the end of the first quarter of 2020. However…

What is Behind China’s Modest Economic Recovery?

According to the IMF, the Chinese economy contracted 6.8% in the first quarter of this year. Most analysts expect modest recovery in the second half of the year, with an anticipated 2020 full year growth rate of 0.5% to 2%, depending on the course of the virus, among other factors…

Georgia has been properly lauded for its tough but pragmatic response to the coronavirus epidemic. The country took strong action early, closing key borders and instituting a strict lock down before rapid community spread took hold. Consequently, Georgia has thus far been far more successful than its neighbors — Russia…

In two major period over the past fifty years the Federal Reserve has been the great enabler, using low interest rates to temporarily juice the economy, assuaging the President and aggressive interests in Congress and at times the financial services industry. The first time was in the 1970’s; the culprit…

James Gerard Moses

James Moses is owner & research director of Primary Research Group Inc. He has an MA in international economics and political economy from Columbia University.

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